In a hypothetical 2024 general election match-up, President Biden leads former President Trump by 10 percentage points, according to a study of registered Pennsylvania voters released on Thursday.
According to the Franklin & Marshall College poll, Biden received support from 48 percent of people surveyed, compared to 38 percent for Trump. Meanwhile, 13% of respondents polled stated they preferred to vote for “someone else,” while the remaining 1% claimed they had no idea who to vote for.
Biden’s lead increased significantly since the previous Franklin & Marshall College survey. In the February 2024 poll, Biden led Trump by only one point — within the margin of error — with 43 percent to Trump’s 42 percent. Another 12% stated they supported someone else, and 2% were unsure.
The survey found that third-party and independent candidates appeared to be limiting Biden’s momentum in Pennsylvania.
When asked to choose between Biden, Trump, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Pennsylvania voters were more willing to consider alternative choices.
In that scenario, Biden was supported by 42% of Pennsylvania voters polled. Trump received 40%, Kennedy 9%, and Stein 3%. Another 4% said they preferred someone else, while 4% said they were unsure.
Third-party candidates received slightly less support in the February 2024 survey. Biden received support from 42% of Pennsylvania voters. Trump had 37%, Kennedy 8%, and Stein 2%. Seven percent said someone else, while five percent claimed they didn’t know.
Pennsylvania could be a key state for Biden in the November election. After not voting for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, the Keystone State startled many observers by supporting Trump by fewer than 50,000 votes in 2016. Biden was able to reverse the trend in 2020, but only by one percentage point.
The increasing rise of third-party candidates, however, has alarmed Democrats, who fear they will receive more support from Biden than from Trump.
According to the Decision Desk HQ polling average, Biden leads Trump by 1.1 percent in Pennsylvania. Nationally, Trump leads Biden by 0.7 percentage points.
The study was conducted from March 20 to 31, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The margin of error for questions involving a two-way matchup is 5.7 percentage points.