Rapid intensification remains a serious concern as the Florida Keys considers new construction decisions that could impact evacuation timeframes from Key Largo to Key West. Rapid intensification is one of the major wild cards in evaluating the threat of hurricanes throughout the Florida Keys.
On Nov. 20, however, National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist Jon Rizzo told the Monroe County Commission that new developments had helped limit potentially expensive forecasting errors for severe storms.
As the county prepares to make a final decision on Dec. 19 over whether to pursue more than 220 new building rights for the island chain during the 2025 Florida state legislative session, Rizzo’s presentation was given during a special workshop session.
He looked at 34 occurrences from 1852 to 2017 where storms of Category 2 or higher, which would have required residents to evacuate if they happened today, passed through an ellipse around the Florida Keys.
Four (12%) of the 34 storms, according to Rizzo, showed signs of rapid intensification, which is defined as a rise in wind speed of at least 35 mph over a 24-hour period through the storm’s landfall in the Keys or closest point of approach. Within 24 hours of impact, eleven (32%) showed quick intensification, and 12 demonstrated the rise within 30 hours.
In the final 24 hours prior to landfall, 14 of the 34 storms displayed what Rizzo called near-miss rapid intensification increases of 29 mph or more, while precisely half of the storms displayed this near-miss increase in the final 36 hours. Rizzo acknowledged that intensification forecasts have a margin of error.
Cuba is the strongest factor, Rizzo informed the board. The rapid strengthening of storms is stopped if they pass over a portion of the land mass. However, the fact that you are now operating within 12 hours of landfall may have a significant impact on emergency management’s choices. A storm that hits Cuba must be traveling much more slowly, reach the Florida Straits, and stall somewhere in order to intensify quickly.
After comparing the expected and actual arrival times and intensities of tropical storm force winds or higher, Rizzo examined 15 instances of time-documented evacuation orders in Monroe County. He claimed that in many cases, evacuation orders were too cautious and advised residents and visitors to go more than a day before the arrival of high winds.
Rizzo made a final statement regarding rapid intensification, emphasizing that his job is to give emergency management officials predictive data so they can decide whether to evacuate.
“We recommend planning for it,” he said, which is the nicest advice that stays in my lane.
Public commenters questioned Rizzo’s agreement with studies published by Mark DeMaria, a current researcher at Colorado State University and a former NOAA hurricane forecaster, who claimed that current models would only predict rapid intensification 32% of the time. Although he agreed with the basic idea, Rizzo stated that new developments had reduced the margin of error in storms that were increasing quickly.
According to him, the majority of missed intensity cases ten years ago were quick intensification cases, with an average difference of roughly thirty to thirty-five knots (wind speed). Since that peak has moved over the past few years, the errors are most likely in the low 20s. (Rapid intensification), but not necessarily by 30 knots, will be missed.
Residents were reminded by Emergency Management Director Shannon Weiner that Monroe is the only county in Florida to have its own dedicated national weather service office.
In response to questions from the public regarding the possibility of traffic jams on the mainland during a mass evacuation, Weiner stated that part of her regular storm preparation procedures entails speaking with representatives from Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties at least once every day to discuss and coordinate their anticipated preventative measures.
If I were to sum up what you told us in 25 words or fewer, I would say that since humans make evacuation choices, we usually err on the side of caution, Commissioner David Rice stated.
Options depend on parcels that can be built.
Emily Schemper, the county planning director, gave an update during the Wednesday workshop on her ongoing efforts to find undeveloped, buildable parcels in the county that might expose taxpayers to liability through takings cases that are initiated if the owner of a buildable lot is not given the chance to do so.
According to Schemper, her earlier analysis had already omitted properties with density restrictions that would prevent the construction of at least one home, environmentally sensitive parcels, lots exempt from the Rate of Growth Ordinance (ROGO), properties for which ROGO permits had previously been granted but were permitted to expire, and other parcels zoned for alternative commercial uses.
She noted that in addition to the 452 developable lots from Marathon and the 219 from Islamorada, there are roughly 1,618 viable lots left in unincorporated Monroe County.
According to existing models, the BOCC decided in October to proceed with a request for at least 220 more construction rights from the state, the most that could be added to the county while maintaining the constitutionally mandated 24-hour evacuation for permanent residents.
The laws governing the Florida Keys as an Area of Critical State Concern must be modified in order to accommodate any more requests. Following formal recommendations from Key West, Marathon, and Islamorada, which will ultimately guide a countywide request to the state, that choice will be taken at a special BOCC meeting in Marathon on December 19.
Schemper gave a sample of options for additional unit requests during Wednesday’s session. These included an additional 2,294 units that represented a mix of market rate, affordable, and multifamily affordable housing units, as well as 100 units for the county that had already been secured as Monroe County’s share of the 220 units requested in October.
The options presented in Schemper’s presentation depended on several factors that could affect the course of future takings cases, such as whether the buildable lots were acquired before the 1992 adoption of ROGO restrictions, after the state’s 2011 building allocations to the Keys, or after the Keys implemented a tier system that gave less environmentally sensitive parcels an advantage when applying for permits. Additional factors include whether a parcel is a dry lot or a waterfront property, as well as whether its zoning permits larger multifamily affordable housing buildings or other commercial uses.
Given the working title of workforce market-rate housing in Wednesday’s session, the board promptly granted Schemper permission to proceed with developing a definition for a new classification of housing units in response to community feedback that strongly supported encouraging homeownership for full-time Keys residents.
In addition to eliminating the income restrictions and financial ramifications of deed restricting a property as a traditional workforce or affordable unit, the newly defined pool could reserve units to be occupied exclusively by those who earn 70% of their incomes as Keys workforce members, according to Schemper. First-time home builders can be eligible for assistance through a grant program if they commit to selling their house only to other eligible Keys workers in the future.
“I’ve been advocating for this kind of housing unit all along,” said Commissioner Michelle Lincoln. By preventing these apartments from turning into holiday rentals, it meets the community’s desire to retain our workforce and families while allowing them to pursue homeownership. Additionally, it does so without changing our holiday rental law, so we won’t run afoul of the law.
Results of the fifth survey
The results of the fifth and last poll in the county’s online series to get citizen feedback on requests for more construction rights were delivered by assistant planning director Cheryl Cioffari.
With daily traffic, environmental deterioration, and a loss of small-town feel as the main concerns, 76.5% of survey participants stated that they would be in favor of a slower rate of construction rights distribution than is now in place.
The respondents said that their favorite methods for lowering takings cases were government land acquisition and permitting non-residential uses of sites that had previously been set aside for residential development.
When asked what proportion of the state’s new units should be set aside for workforce or affordable apartments, most respondents suggested setting aside more than 50% for either category.
The vast majority of respondents opposed further development, with 46.28% calling for no more units and 38.09% advocating for 220 units or less.
The following actions:
- Tuesday, Dec. 3, Marathon City Hall: The Marathon City Council will hold a workshop for resident input on Marathon s request for units. A formal request will be finalized via resolution at the council s regular session on Tuesday, Dec. 10.
- Tuesday, Dec. 10, Founders Park Community Center: The Islamorada Village Council will finalize a request for units at its regular December meeting.
- Wednesday, Dec. 11, Murray Nelson Government Center: At its regular December meeting, the BOCC will receive a presentation on a county infrastructure study to determine infrastructure needs with additional building allocations.
- Thursday, Dec. 12: The Key West City Commission will finalize a request for units at its regular December meeting.
- Thursday, Dec. 19, Marathon Government Center: The BOCC will meet in a special session to finalize a request for ROGO allocations from the State of Florida.
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