TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, hurried to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory in last month’s U.S. election, calling it the greatest comeback in history! He poured.
Netanyahu’s joy is understandable if Trump’s adamantly pro-Israel first term and his selections for senior administration posts are any guide.
However, since Trump’s departure in early 2021, a lot has happened. The Middle East wars, Netanyahu’s personal relationship with him, and the ambitious goals of his far-right governing coalition might stifle that zeal and complicate what appears to be a smooth partnership.
This is the desire for Bibi. According to Israeli journalist and Netanyahu biographer Mazal Mualem, who goes by his moniker, “He wanted this.” It seems too wonderful to be true to Bibi.
Trump’s support will be even more crucial given that Netanyahu is scheduled to testify in his corruption trial and is the subject of an international arrest order related to the Gaza War.
FILE – President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands at The Israel Museum in Jerusalem, May 23, 2017. (AP Photo/Sebastian Scheiner, File)
Picture courtesy of Sebastian Scheiner/Associated Press
Trump implemented policies that were generally supportive of Netanyahu throughout his first term in office. Trump moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem despite Palestinian protests, defying long-standing U.S. policy to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
The international community views the Golan Heights as occupied Syrian territory, and he acknowledged Israel’s claim to them. He also provided a peace plan that would preserve hundreds of settlements while ignoring Israeli settlement construction in the occupied West Bank.
The whole 1967-captured West Bank is what the Palestinians want as the center of a future state, with the capital located in east Jerusalem. Settlements in both regions are deemed unlawful by the international community.
Trump increased sanctions against Iran, killed a senior Iranian general, and pulled the United States from an Obama-era agreement between world powers and Iran over its nuclear program at Netanyahu’s insistence.
Additionally, Trump arranged a number of diplomatic agreements between Israel and Arab nations in the last days of his presidency, dispelling the long-held belief that Arab nations would not repair relations with Israel unless Palestinian statehood was advanced. For Netanyahu, the accords represented a significant international policy victory.
Trump being tough on Iran or perhaps giving Israel the weapons it needs to launch a successful attack on Iran’s nuclear program is probably at the top of Netanyahu’s wish list this time. Although Netanyahu would aim to reduce Israeli concessions to the Palestinians in exchange, he will also want to see progress on normalization with Saudi Arabia. Additionally, he will probably anticipate that Trump will allow Israel to operate freely in Gaza and not put pressure on it to remove its forces, even in the event of a ceasefire agreement.
After tense relations with the Biden administration, Netanyahu and his supporters have voiced optimism that the good times will return in the weeks following Trump’s reelection.
According to longtime Netanyahu adviser Aviv Bushinsky, the current consensus is that Trump will deliver. He claimed that Netanyahu’s choice of a staunch supporter of settlements to serve as ambassador to Washington was an indication of his faith in the future under Trump.
Netanyahu could definitely use the boost, particularly since his popularity declined following the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023.
Opinion polls have consistently predicted that if new elections were held now, Netanyahu’s ruling coalition would fall well short of the necessary majority to remain in power, even in light of significant battlefield victories against Hamas, such as the October death of its leader and the recent ceasefire that put an end to nearly 14 months of fighting with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
This month, Netanyahu will also testify in his protracted corruption prosecution, preparing for a spectacle that can attract unwanted attention. A further setback for the Israeli leader is the warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, which may make it more difficult for him to visit dozens of nations across the world. A number of controversies involving the leak or manipulation of private wartime documents have also implicated several of Netanyahu’s advisors.
However, there are no assurances that Trump will grant Netanyahu’s wishes.
To begin with, it is unclear if their relationship is as solid as it previously was.Despite Trump’s accusations that the election was rigged against him, Netanyahu infuriated him by congratulating President Joe Biden on his victory in 2020. It’s unclear whether Trump would harbor resentment once he returns to power, notwithstanding Netanyahu’s visit to Florida earlier this year.
Additionally, Trump returns to the White House with a conflict-roiled Middle East, which may cause their allegiance to get jumbled.
14 months after the Hamas strike that started the conflict, Israel is still battling in Gaza, despite the ceasefire with Hezbollah seemingly holding. Though he hasn’t specified what that may mean, Trump has stated that he wants Israel to resolve the situation in the war-torn Palestinian territory. Before taking office in January, he has called for the release of Israeli prisoners held in Gaza, stating without further explanation that if they are not liberated, “there will be hell to pay.”
Trump’s acceptance of Netanyahu’s postwar vision for Gaza, which calls for an indefinite military presence in the region, is far from certain.
Trump might perhaps have more ambitious intentions for the area. He has previously discussed restoring relations between Saudi Arabia, the richest and most powerful Arab nation, and Israel. Even while it strongly favored Israel, his first-term peace plan called for the creation of a Palestinian state—albeit one that is much smaller than what the Palestinians want.
Israel would have to compromise with the Palestinians in order to move forward on either of these paths.
Netanyahu and his hard-line ruling allies reject Saudi Arabia’s repeated assertion that normalization with Israel would not occur unless there is a clear route to Palestinian independence. Even if Netanyahu were to change his mind, his government would most likely fall apart.
Netanyahu is certain that, like in the past, he can get Trump to support his objectives. But since the triumph on November 5, the U.S. president-elect has been delivering, as usual, confusing messages, according to Amos Harel, an analyst with the liberal newspaper Haaretz.
Trump’s approach to Iran is likewise unclear. According to Eytan Gilboa, a U.S.-Israel relations expert at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University, Netanyahu anticipates that Trump would once again put the greatest amount of pressure on Tehran to curtail its nuclear program, but he may consider negotiating in order to leave a legacy as a mediator if he is elected to a second term.
Trump’s potential stance on any of these matters might compel Netanyahu to take a side, positioning him for conflict with the parties that are essential to his political survival.
Trump is Israel’s best friend in the White House, according to Netanyahu. Gilboa added that he won’t be able to refuse Trump’s requests. Here, a variety of issues could occur.
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