AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Mississippi’s judicial runoff elections

Washington (AP) In order to avoid a runoff, voters in central Mississippi, the Delta, and the Gulf Coast regions of the state will cast ballots again on Tuesday in two judicial contests where no candidate obtained the majority of votes required in the main election held on November 5.

Seats on the state Supreme Court and state Court of Appeals, Mississippi’s two highest courts, are up for grabs. The judges on both panels hold office for the longest period of time in the state—eight years.

Justice Jim Kitchens is running for a third term on the Louisiana Supreme Court in District 1, usually referred to as the Central District, which covers the middle part of the state from the Alabama border to the Delta area along the Mississippi River. Kitchens is next in line to become chief justice because he is the more senior of the Court’s two presiding justices. Jenifer Branning, a third-term Republican state senator, is his opponent. With 42% of the vote to Kitchens’ 36%, Branning received the most votes in the general election, with the remaining votes being divided between three other contenders.

Despite the courts’ nominal nonpartisan status, partisan divisions have emerged in the Supreme Court contest, with Republican districts in the competitive district overwhelmingly supporting Branning and Democratic ones largely favoring Kitchens in the Nov. 5 election. This was comparable to the vote pattern in Kitchens’ 2016 reelection campaign, in which he garnered support from Democratic regions of the state while his opponent primarily garnered support from Republican regions.

Branning calls herself a constitutional conservative and attacks the radical left, liberal judges, and activists. The state Republican Party has endorsed her.

Kitchens has voiced his disapproval in well-known death penalty appeals, such as the September case in which he supported a man serving a death sentence for a murder conviction in which a crucial witness later withdrew her testimony. He dissented from a number of death penalty cases in 2018 that dealt with the usage of the medication midazolam during state executions. The civil rights group Action Fund of the Southern Poverty Law Center supports Kitchens.

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Since starting her campaign in February, Branning has had a significant financial edge over the incumbent, primarily because of a $250,000 personal loan she gave to the cause.

In the Court of Appeals race, Amy St. Pe and Jennifer Schloegel were the top two finishers in a competitive three-way contest on Nov. 5 to replace outgoing Judge Joel Smith. In the general election, Schloegel received 33% of the vote, while St. Pe received 35%. The 5th District of the Court is located in the southeast region of the state, near the Gulf Coast.

Here’s what to anticipate on Tuesday:

Election day for the runoff

The runoff for Mississippi’s general election is scheduled for Tuesday. After 8 p.m. ET, the polls close.

What’s on the ballot

The results of the runoff elections for seats on the state Supreme Court and state Appeals Court will be announced by the Associated Press.

Who is eligible to vote?

Any voter in Supreme Court District 1 or Appeals Court District 5 who registered for the Nov. 5 general election may participate in the general election runoff.

Decision notes

Although Mississippi is reliably Republican in statewide elections, the Supreme Court s Central District is home to much of the state s Democratic strongholds, including the Jackson area and the counties in the Mississippi Delta region. Democrats Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both carried the Central District in their 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns, while Kamala Harris trailed Donald Trump by less than a percentage point in 2024.

In the general election, Branning led in 10 of the 11 counties Trump carried, while Kitchens carried 10 of the 11 counties that Harris, Biden and Clinton all won in their campaigns.

The 11 Trump counties made up about 62% of the total general election vote, compared to about 38% for the 11 Harris counties. In order to win, Kitchens would need to build on his leads in the counties he carried Nov. 5 and peel off enough of the votes cast for the three other candidates in areas that Trump won. That was his path to victory in his 2016 reelection race, when he carried the same 10 Harris/Biden/Clinton counties, as well as his home county of Copiah and six other counties.

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The most populous of these Kitchens-Trump counties is Madison, which made up about 13% of the total district vote earlier this month. Kitchens carried Madison in 2016 with 50% of the vote but only received 36% this year, compared to 47% for Branning. Trump carried Madison three times, most recently with 57% of the vote. Kitchens also carried neighboring Leake and Scott counties in 2016, but Branning had outright vote majorities there on Nov. 5.

Warren County on the Mississippi River will be another key battleground in the race. Trump carried the county by close margins in 2016 and 2024 and lost by a close margin in 2020. Kitchens received 55% of the vote there in 2016, but Branning had a plurality there on election night.

The Court of Appeals race takes place in a district Trump carried three times with roughly 70% of the vote. The most populous areas to watch are the neighboring counties of Harrison (home of Biloxi and Gulfport) and Jackson (home of Pascagoula), both on the Gulf Coast.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

What do turnout and advance vote look like

According to a September tally by the Mississippi Secretary of State s office, there were about 609,000 active voters in Supreme Court District 1 and about 449,000 active voters in Court of Appeals District 5. Voters in Mississippi do not register by party.

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The last time a state Supreme Court race advanced to a runoff was in 2016. About 339,000 votes were cast for that seat in the general election, but the total fell sharply to about 38,000 votes for the runoff held later that month.

In the Nov. 5 general election, turnout was about 54% of registered voters in the presidential race, about 48% in the state Supreme Court race and about 50% in the Court of Appeals race.

About 18% of votes were cast before Election Day in the 2020 general election and about 7% in the 2022 midterm elections.

As of Wednesday, a total of 4,021 ballots had been cast before the runoff election.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the Nov. 5 general election, the AP first reported results at 8:19 p.m. ET, or 19 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 2:35 a.m. ET with about 93% of total votes counted.

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