Assad’s downfall is a humiliating blow to Russia. How will it affect Putin’s prestige?

As part of the Kremlin’s military involvement to support Bashar Assad’s government in the midst of a civil war, President Vladimir Putin gleefully declared victory over terrorists in Syria while standing with Russian forces at their air base nearly seven years ago.

Those hard-earned achievements seemed like a faraway memory this past weekend. When Assad’s control collapsed due to a lightning-fast rebel offensive that his principal international backers, Russia and Iran, were unable to stop, he quickly fled to Moscow.

At a critical juncture in its war in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s inability to stop Assad’s quick overthrow has shown Russia’s power limits and damaged its international influence.

An examination of Russia’s role in Syria and the potential repercussions for Moscow of Assad’s overthrow:

What part did Russia play in the civil war in Syria?

Hafez Assad, the father of Assad, was a longtime supporter of the Soviet Union, which offered assistance and military advice during his nearly three decades in power.

Russia remained a major supporter of Damascus, providing political backing at the UN when a 2011 protest against Bashar Assad’s leadership turned into a civil war. Following a string of military setbacks in 2015, Russia backed Iran in launching a military intervention as Assad’s authority was on the verge of collapse.

In an operation known as the Syrian Express, Russia sent jets to the Hemeimeem air base in the coastal province of Latakia, Syria, bringing thousands of tons of supplies and military hardware. Moscow’s air campaign was began on September 30, 2015.

Although Russia only maintained roughly 50 jets at Hemeimeem, they were all quite active and flew many flights every day. The majority of the Russian air force troops received combat experience by rotating through the facility.

The sole similar outpost outside of the former USSR, Tartus, was rebuilt and enlarged by Moscow at the same period. It dispatched hundreds of military advisors to train Syrian troops and oversee their operations, and it sent special operations personnel for vital ground missions. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group military contractor sent mercenaries to the conflict as well.

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By enabling Assad to regain control of the majority of Syria, the military intervention raised Russia’s stature and established the Kremlin as a major Middle Eastern power broker. Putin’s victorious visit to Hemeimeem on December 11, 2017, coincided with his announcement of a 2018 reelection campaign and a week after Russia declared victory over the Islamic State organization in Syria.

It allowed Moscow to test its newest weaponry in combat and was the country’s first military action outside of the former Soviet Union since the fall of the USSR in 1991. Putin was emboldened by his military victory, which played a significant role in his 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

What prevented Russia from retaining Assad?

Russia encouraged Assad to hold negotiations with moderate opposition factions after assisting him in regaining control of the majority of Syria. However, Assad adamantly opposed any efforts at national reconciliation, buoyed by opposition defeats.

According to an analysis by Ruslan Pukhov, a military specialist based in Moscow, Russia has been concentrating more on upholding the unstable and ineffective status quo in Syria in an effort to reduce its expenses, supporting the disintegrating and delegitimized Assad administration without any viewpoints.

Assad’s regime had little interest in reaching a settlement during recent discussions between Syrian and Turkish officials that Moscow helped arrange this year; this resistance opened the door for the uprising by opposition organizations supported by Turkey that overthrew Assad.

The nation and its military were weakened by Syria’s economic problems, which were made worse by isolationist foreign sanctions. With the limited forces they had in Syria, Tehran and Moscow were unable to stop the opposition offensive’s rapid deterioration of the demoralized Syrian army.

While Iran, which was emboldened by international sanctions and in a tense standoff with Israel, also lacked resources to support Assad, Russia committed the majority of its resources to the war in Ukraine.

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An ideologue associated with some hawkish Kremlin circles, Alexander Dugin, saw Assad’s death as a devastating blow to Russia.

Our massive efforts to help the Assad regime ended in a matter of days. “It’s really sad,” Dugin remarked.

How do Russian assets in Syria fare?

The future of Russia’s sole military presence outside of the former Soviet Union, its bases in Syria, is in doubt following the overthrow of Assad.

Hemeimeem air base still serves as a vital logistical hub, although the number of Russian jets there has decreased from several dozen to a handful. It was utilized for fuelling Russian military cargo planes transporting supplies and private contractors to Africa; its destruction would cause logistical issues for operations in that region.

In televised remarks, Nikolai Sukhov, a Middle East specialist based in Moscow, stated that Syria has been crucial to Russia’s operations in Africa.

When Russian warships visit the Mediterranean, they refuel, maintain, and resupply at the Tartus naval facility. The Russian air force and navy conducted exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, using Tartus as its operating headquarters, while the opposition forces that ultimately overthrew Assad swept over Syria in late November.

Moscow contacted the new Syrian authorities to try to secure the security of its bases and to extend their stay, even as Putin granted Assad and his family sanctuary in Russia. The Syrian Embassy in Moscow swiftly raised an opposition flag.

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin, responded that future talks with the new authority would address the bases.

“It will obviously take time and require a serious conversation with those who will have power, as we are currently experiencing a period of transformation and extreme instability,” he said.

According to reports, Syria’s new leaders pledged not to strike Russian military installations.

In a commentary, Bronwen Maddox, director and CEO of Chatham House, stated that any government that takes power in Damascus is anticipated to uphold the agreement that Assad made to allow Russia to use a military base on the Syrian coast.

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However, she also noted that Russia’s regional influence is at stake due to the vulnerability of this significant asset.

What does Russia stand to gain from the death of Assad?

Putin is currently planning for a new U.S. administration and what that means for the war in Ukraine, so the swift overthrow of Assad struck him a serious blow. Donald Trump, the incoming president, has promised to engage in peace talks.

Numerous analysts point out that the humiliating loss of Russia’s last Middle Eastern ally has damaged Kremlin reputation internationally and may make Putin less powerful in any negotiations over Ukraine.

In a commentary, Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center stated that the main concern is how Moscow will attempt to adjust to the new circumstances and whether it will have sufficient adaptability to deal with the new Syrian rulers, who appear to be interested in averting war with Moscow for the time being.

Additionally, in order to avoid appearing weak, Putin can adopt an even more unyielding position in discussions.

Stanovaya noted that Putin has been disturbed by Assad’s fall and is less likely to show flexibility with Ukraine. He has somewhat lost Syria as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, which only serves to strengthen his resistance to making concessions.

The Associated Press, 2024. All rights reserved. All rights reserved. It is prohibited to publish, broadcast, rewrite, or redistribute this content without authorization.

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