HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) ThedrubbingDemocrats took in Pennsylvania in this year s election has prompted predictable vows to rebound, but it has also sowed doubts about whether Pennsylvania might be leaving the ranks of up-for-grabs swing states for a right-leaning existence more like Ohio s.
The analysis of the electorate’s rejection of Democrats coincides with mounting rumors that Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiroas may be a candidate for the party’s 2028 presidential candidacy.
Even before he attracted widespread national recognition for adding Vice President Kamala Harris to his shortlist of running mates, Shapiro was regarded as an emerging star in the party and was widely expected to run for reelection in the 2026 midterm elections.
Democrats in Pennsylvania claim that voters who were expressly inspired by President-elect Donald Trump are responsible for at least some of the 2024 election’s defeats. According to the argument, if Trump is not on the ballot, many of those voters will not cast ballots, maintaining Pennsylvania’s position as the ultimate swing state.
According to Jamie Perrapato, executive director of Turn PA Blue, a group that assists in recruiting and preparing campaign volunteers, “I don’t think it’s an indicator for Pennsylvania.” When these individuals cast ballots in elections other than the presidential one, I’ll believe it.
FILE – Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro speaks during a campaign rally for Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris outside the Philadelphia Museum of Art, Nov. 4, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)
Image courtesy of Matt Rourke/Associated Press
According to data from ad-tracking company AdImpact, political campaigns spent more money on campaign commercials in Pennsylvania than in any other state in 2024, making it clear that the state was the country’s top battleground.
Democrats spent a large portion of that money, but their loss was universal. Pennsylvania Democrats lost two congressional seats, three other statewide contests, a U.S. Senate seat, 19 presidential electoral votes, and what was once a comforting lead in voter registration.
Some of the losses were especially noteworthy: since 1880, Democrats had not lost both an incumbent senator and Pennsylvania’s electoral votes in the same year. For Democrats, the loss of three-term Senator Bob Casey is particularly devastating because the son of a former governor has held statewide office since 1997.
A reverberation of what transpired everywhere
In Pennsylvania, the same discussion Democrats are having across the country on Harris’ crushing defeat is taking place, with no consensus on what went wrong.
Some accused Pennsylvania native President Joe Biden of breaking his pledge to not seek reelection. Some blamed the party s left wing and some blamed Harris, saying she tried to woo Republican voters instead of focusing on pocketbook issues that were motivating working-class voters.
In Pennsylvania, finger-pointing erupted in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia where Trump significantly narrowed his 2020 deficit between the city s Democratic Party chair and a Harris campaign adviser.
The nation s sixth-most populous city is historically a driver ofDemocratic victoriesstatewide, but Harris margin there was the smallest of any Democratic presidential nominee since John Kerry s in 2004, and turnout there was well below the statewide average.
Rural Democrats suggested the party left votes on the table in their regions, too. Some said Harris hurt herself by not responding forcefully enough in the nation s No. 2 natural gas state against Trump s assertions that she wouldban fracking.
Ed Rendell, the former two-term governor of Pennsylvania and ex-Democratic National Committee chair, said Trump had the right message this year and that Harris didn t have enough time on the campaign trail to counter it.
Still, Rendell said Pennsylvania remains very much a swing state.
I wouldn t go crazy over these election results, Rendell said. It s still tight enough to say that in 2022 the Democrats swept everything and you would have thought that things looked pretty good for us, and this time we almost lost everything.
That year, Shapirowonthe governor s office by nearly 15%, John Fetterman was the only candidate in the nation toflipa U.S. Senate seat despitesuffering a strokein the midst of his campaign, and Democrats captured control of the state House of Representatives for the first time in a dozen years.
Bethany Hallam, an Allegheny County council member who is part of a wave of progressive Democrats to win office around Pittsburgh in recent years, said the party can fix things before Pennsylvania becomes Ohio. But she cautioned against interpreting 2024 as a one-time blip, saying it would be a mistake to think Trump voters will never be heard from again.
They re going to be more empowered to keep voting more, Hallam said. They came out, finally exercised their votes and the person they picked won. I don t think this was a one-off thing.
The ever-changing political landscape
Shapiro, assuming he seeks another term in 2026, would likely benefit from a mid-term backlash that has haunted the party in power in this case, Republicans and Trump in nearly every election since World War II.
The political landscape never stays the same, and voters two years from now will be reacting to a new set of factors: the state of the economy, the ups and downs of Trump s presidency, events no one sees coming.
Rendell predicted that Trump s public approval ratings will be badly damaged below 40% even before he takes office.
Democrats, meanwhile, fully expect Republicans to come after Shapiro in an effort to damage any loftier ambitions he may have.
They say they ll be ready.
He s on the MAGA radar, said Michelle McFall, the Westmoreland County Democratic Party chair. He s a wildly popular governor in what is still the most important battleground state and we re going to make sure we re in fighting shape to hold that seat.
In 2025, partisan control of the state Supreme Court will be up for grabs when three Democratic justiceselecteda decade ago must run to retain their seats in up-or-down elections without an opponent. Republicans have it marked on their calendars.
Democrats will go into those battles with their narrowest voter registration edge in at least a half-century. What was an advantage of 1.2 million voters in 2008, the year Barack Obama won the presidency, is now a gap of fewer than 300,000.
University of Pennsylvaniaresearchersfound that, since the 2020 presidential election, Republican gains weren t because Republicans registered more new voters.
Rather, the GOP s gains were from more Democrats switching their registration to Republican, a third party or independent, as well as more inactive Democratic voters being removed from registration rolls, the researchers reported.
Democrats have won more statewide elections in the past 25 years, but the parties are tied in that category in the five elections from 2020 through 2024.
Daniel Hopkins, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said it is hard to predict that Pennsylvania is trending in a particular direction, since politics are evolving and parties that lose tend to adapt.
Even when Democrats had larger registration advantages, Hopkins said, Republicans competed on a statewide playing field.
Hopkins said Democrats should be worried that they lostyoung votersandHispanic votersto Trump, although the swing toward the GOP was relatively muted in Pennsylvania. Trump s 1.8 percentage-point victory was hardly a landslide, he noted, and it signals that Pennsylvania will be competitive moving forward.
I don t think that the registration numbers are destiny, Hopkins said. That s partly because even with Democrats losing their registration advantage, whichever party can win the unaffiliated voters by a healthy margin will carry the state.
___
Follow Marc Levy attwitter.com/timelywriter
Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
Note: Every piece of content is rigorously reviewed by our team of experienced writers and editors to ensure its accuracy. Our writers use credible sources and adhere to strict fact-checking protocols to verify all claims and data before publication. If an error is identified, we promptly correct it and strive for transparency in all updates, feel free to reach out to us via email. We appreciate your trust and support!