DUBLIN (AP) After years of unemployment, global upheaval, and pressures from the cost of living, Ireland will vote on Friday in a parliamentary election that will determine the country’s future administration and if it deviates from the global trend of unhappy voters toppling incumbents.
Ireland’s 3.8 million voters are choosing 174 representatives to serve in the Dail, the lower house of parliament, with polls opening at 7 a.m. (0700GMT).
The parties, the problems, and the probable result are examined here.
Who is running?
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, the two parties that have controlled Irish politics for the previous century, led the departing government. Despite having similar center-right beliefs, they have been bitter enemies since the 1920s, when they were on different sides of Ireland’s civil war.
Irish Prime Minister and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris, center, accompanied by his wife Caoimhe and children Cillian and Saoirse, casts his vote at Delgany National School, County Wicklow, as voters go to the polls for the 2024 General Election in Ireland, Friday Nov. 29, 2024. (Niall Carson/PA via AP)
Image: Niall Carson/Associated Press
They established a coalition after the 2020 election ended in a near-death struggle, deciding to split Cabinet positions and alternate as prime minister, or taoiseach.Leo Varadkar of the Fine Gael took over as premier in December 2022 after Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin served as premier for the first half of the term.After Varadkar abruptly resigned in March, incumbent Taoiseach Simon Harris took over.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael refused to cooperate with Sinn Fein, citing its leftist policies and historical ties to the militant group the Irish Republican Army during three decades of violence in Northern Ireland, although the opposition party made a stunning breakthrough in the 2020 election, winning the most votes. As a result, Sinn Fein was excluded from government.
Voters rank their preferences to elect several legislators in each of Ireland’s 43 constituencies under the proportional representation system. Smaller parties and independent candidates with a sizable local following can therefore acquire seats rather easily.
There are many independent candidates running in this election, including well-known criminal leader Gerry the Monk Hutch, far-right extremists, and local campaigners.
What are the primary problems?
The expense of living, particularly housing, has dominated the campaign, as it has in many other nations. Ireland has a severe housing shortage as a result of the economic downturn that followed the 2008 global financial crisis and the failure to construct enough new dwellings during the Celtic Tiger boom years.
According to John-Mark McCafferty, CEO of the housing and homelessness organization Threshold, there was no construction throughout the crisis, and when it ended, offices and hotels were constructed first.
Rising rents, skyrocketing home prices, and an increase in homelessness are the outcomes.
According to McCafferty, Ireland has resources after ten years of economic expansion, including at least 13 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in unpaid taxes that the European Union has required Apple to pay, but it is also working to rectify significant, historic infrastructure gaps.
Immigration, a relatively new challenge to a nation long defined by emigration, is intertwined with the housing issue. More than 100,000 Ukrainians who have been displaced by war and thousands of migrants escaping poverty and warfare in the Middle East and Africa are among the recent arrivals.
Tent camps and temporary lodging facilities have been established in this 5.4 million-person nation due to its inability to accommodate all of the asylum-seekers, which has caused tension and protests. The worst rioting Ireland has seen in decades was caused by a stabbing attack on children outside a Dublin school a year ago, in which an Algerian man has been accused.
Although Ireland does not have a sizable far-right party like many other European nations, anti-immigrant independent candidates are running for office in a number of districts, and far-right voices on social media aim to incite anti-immigrant sentiment. Sinn Fein’s pro-immigration policies have angered working-class supporters, which seems to be hurting the party’s popularity.
What is the most likely result?
According to opinion polls, voters’ support for Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, a number of smaller parties, and a variety of independents is divided into five fairly equal parts.
Fianna Fail has held steady in the polls, Fine Gael has waged a campaign riddled with gaffes, and Sinn Fein claims that although it has momentum, it is unlikely to win power unless the other parties agree to cooperate.
The most likely scenario, according to analysts, is another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, perhaps with a smaller party or a number of independents serving as kingmakers.
According to Eoin O. Malley, a political scientist at Dublin City University, it’s only a matter of which little faction will back the government this time. The goal of coalition building is to give a different color to what is essentially the same moderate administration each time.
When will the results be known?
An exit poll will provide the first clues regarding the outcome when polls close on Friday at 10 p.m. (2200GMT). Voter counting starts on Saturday morning. It can take a few days to see the full results, and then days or weeks to establish a government.
Harris, who voted in Delgany, which is south of Dublin, stated that Irish politicians and people had a difficult few days ahead of them.
The beauty and complexity of our system, he added, is that when the clock strikes ten o’clock tonight, an exit poll will be conducted, but it won’t even reveal the election’s outcome.
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Lawless reported from London.
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