Washington (AP) With an unexpected rebel attack on Aleppo, one of Syria’s biggest cities and a historic commercial center, the 13-year civil war has erupted once again. In a conflict whose destabilizing repercussions have spread well beyond the nation’s boundaries, the offensive is one of the rebels’ strongest in years.
Aleppo had not been attacked by the opposition since 2016, when Syrian President Bashar Assad retook the northwest city thanks to a vicious air campaign carried out by Russian airplanes. Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, which is linked with Iran, and other forces have intervened to keep Assad in power inside the 70% of Syria that he controls.
As U.S.-backed Israel fights Iranian-allied Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the escalation in combat has increased the likelihood of another bloody front reopening in the Middle East.
The previous U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, cited Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon this week and months of Israeli bombings on Syrian and Hezbollah sites in the region as reasons why Syria’s rebels are able to progress.
Here are a few salient features of the new combat:
What is the significance of the Aleppo battle?
An estimated half a million people have died in the 13-year struggle between Assad and opposition factions vying for his downfall. About 6.8 million Syrians have left the nation, a refugee crisis that fueled far-right anti-immigrant movements and contributed to a shift in Europe’s political landscape.
A variety of opposition forces and foreign troops govern the approximately 30% of the country that is not Assad’s. About 900 American soldiers are stationed in northeast Syria, distant from Aleppo, to prevent an Islamic State revival. Israel and the United States occasionally strike government forces and militias with ties to Iran in Syria. In addition to having troops in Syria, Turkey also has sway over the large coalition of rebel fighters that are occupying Aleppo.
Charles Lister, a longtime Syria analyst with the U.S.-based Middle East Institute, said that if Syrian government forces are unable to hold their ground, the fighting could be extremely quiet, very consequential, and potentially game-changing. This comes after years in which there have been few significant territorial changes between Syria’s warring parties. According to Lister, there are risks if Islamic State fighters perceive it as an opportunity.
Ford claimed that if Russia and Turkey, each of which has its own interests to safeguard in Syria, were drawn into direct, intense combat with one another, the conflict in Aleppo would become more widely destabilizing.
What is known about the force spearheading the Aleppo offensive?
The opposition force behind the Aleppo attack, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, also known by its initials HTS, has long been classified as a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations.
In 2011, during the early months of the Syrian conflict, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, became the head of al-Qaida’s Syria branch. For many in the Syrian opposition, who wanted to preserve the struggle against Assad’s cruel regime free from violent extremism, his fight was an unwanted interference.
Early on, Golani took credit for the deadly explosions, vowed to strike Western forces, and dispatched religious police to ensure ladies wore modest clothing.
In recent years, Golani has made an effort to reinvent himself. In 2016, he broke with al-Qaida. He attacked radical organizations in his region, disbanded his religious police unit, and presented himself as a defender of other faiths. This included permitting the city of Idlib to host its first Christian Mass in years last year.
What is Aleppo’s wartime history?
Aleppo is one of the commercial and cultural hubs of the Middle East, having been at the intersection of empires and trade routes for millennia.
Before the war, there were 2.3 million people living in Aleppo. When rebels took control of the city’s east side in 2012, it became the most conspicuous example of the armed opposition forces’ progress.
The city was besieged in 2016 by government forces supported by Russian airstrikes. Neighborhoods were systematically demolished by Russian shells, missiles, and crude barrel bombs, as well as gasoline canisters and other containers filled with metal and explosives. That year, rebels who were starving and under siege gave up Aleppo.
The battle changed course when the Russian military entered, enabling Assad to maintain his hold on the region.
According to an independent monitoring group, among other targets, Hezbollah weapons stockpiles and Syrian soldiers have been struck by Israeli aircraft in Aleppo this year. Strikes against Aleppo and other government-held regions of Syria are rarely acknowledged by Israel.
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