Unlikely battleground California plays key role — again — in setting US House’s political balance

Los Angeles (AP) Before the election in November, Democrats and Republicans had at least one thing in common: California would be crucial in deciding who would control the U.S. House.

Yes, it did.

In the final House election of the year, Democrat Adam Gray defeated Republican Rep. John Duarte in a Central Valley farm-belt district on Tuesday. This result handed Democrats their third pick-up of a GOP-held seat in the state, a little win in a difficult year for Democrats nationwide.

Republicans kept their position in two other close races, which helped the GOP maintain its tenuous control in Washington, even as Democratic victories reduced the difference in the House. Democrats currently retain 215 House seats, while Republicans won 220 seats this election cycle.

Democrats emphasized that the party will gain seats next year, leaving the legislature even more divided, even though they did not secure a majority.

Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking Democrat in the legislature and a resident of Redlands, east of Los Angeles, stated in Washington that winning three seats was a huge accomplishment.

Even though Kamala Harris was leading the Democratic ticket in her home state, Democratic enthusiasm was dampened by turnout numbers that behind the 2020 presidential race in the overwhelmingly Democratic state.

Republicans also secured small victories in the state legislature. Despite dissatisfaction with retail crimes, voters overwhelmingly supported a ballot proposition that some Democrats opposed, making stealing a felony for repeat offenders and stiffening punishments for some narcotics convictions.

Even in a state where the party controls every statewide position and controls the Legislature and congressional delegation, the election demonstrated that Democrats will need to focus more on problems like crime and the cost of living, according to political scientist Jack Pitney of Claremont McKenna College.

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Democrats hoped California would give them the edge they needed to win a majority in the House. Pitney added, citing GOP victories in North Carolina, that their successes elsewhere were insufficient.

Election officials said on Tuesday that all ballots had been counted, and Gray won by a margin of less than 200 votes.

Duarte won the seat in 2022 after defeating Gray by 564 votes, one of the narrowest margins in the nation. Given that he only won by 11 points over registered Republicans in a Democratic-leaning district, he was frequently ranked as one of the most vulnerable House Republicans.

“We always knew that this race would be as close as they come, and we’re expecting a photo finish this year, too,” Gray said in a statement.

In other Democratic House victories, Democrat George Whitesides defeated Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in a district north of Los Angeles, while first-time candidate Derek Tran defeated Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in a Southern California seat centered on Orange County.

In a rematch of their 2022 race, Republican Representative Ken Calvert defeated Democrat Will Rollins in a seat east of Los Angeles. Additionally, despite a significant Democratic registration advantage, Republican Representative David Valadao managed to hold onto a farm-belt district.

As a result, Republicans will hold nine of the fifty-two U.S. House seats in the state the following year.

California is frequently viewed as a liberal monolith, but previous elections have shown how important these House seats are to both parties. In 2018, Democrats took seven seats away from Republicans, and in 2020, Republicans took four seats away from Democrats.

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After California lost a House member due to reapportionment following the 2020 census, Republicans gained one seat in the 2022 elections, going from 11 to 12, while Democrats lost a seat, going from 42 to 40. The state’s total number of districts decreased from 53 to 52.

In 2022, the state was crucial in helping Republicans win the gavel and elect Bakersfield Representative Kevin McCarthy as speaker.

The Associated Press, 2024. All rights reserved. All rights reserved. It is prohibited to publish, broadcast, rewrite, or redistribute this content without authorization.

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