“The Atlantic gets hotter earlier. “That’s a bad sign for hurricane season, Florida corals”– Miami Herald.
Weather specialists who monitor hurricane season are concerned that the upcoming one may be particularly severe. A chart of North Atlantic temperatures at this time of year displays the highest water temperatures ever recorded for the timeframe.
El Niño appears to be waning. As La Niña strengthens, wind shear increases the likelihood of storms forming. Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami, told the Herald, “Once we start seeing early season forecasts from Colorado State University and NOAA, I suspect they’re going to be pretty aggressive.”
According to last year’s research, scientists forecast bigger hurricanes in the coming years than in the past. A study published in the journal Nature titled “Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates” underscored the fact that “… the number of TCs (tropical storms) that intensify from a Category 1 hurricane (or weaker) into a major hurricane within 36 h has more than doubled in the modern era relative to the historical era.” The “modern era” lasts from 2001 to 2020. The “historical era” lasts from 1971 to 1990.
Can analysts say that the 2024 hurricane season will be the worst on record? No, but they can predict that the following years will be far more strong than the previous ones.